Analysis: Signs Point to Bank of Canada Interest Rate Cut

In March, Canada's inflation rate edged up to 2.9%, while core inflation continued its slowdown. Economists suggest this trend could prompt a Bank of Canada interest rate cut in June.
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Canada’s inflation rate saw a slight uptick in March to 2.9%, with core inflation showing signs of continued deceleration. Economists weigh in on what this could mean for the Bank of Canada, hinting at a potential rate cut in June.

CIBC Capital Markets

Andrew Grantham notes that the latest CPI data aligns with the Bank of Canada’s criteria for core inflation, signaling a possible rate cut in June.

Desjardins Group

Royce Mendes echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the importance of sustained evidence of core inflation slowdown.

Capital Economics Ltd

Olivia Cross sees an increasing likelihood of a rate cut in June due to the ongoing slowdown in core inflation. Despite a slight uptick in headline inflation attributed to higher gas prices, Cross remains optimistic about future inflation trends.

BMO Economics

Douglas Porter acknowledges the positive trend of cooling core inflation but highlights remaining inflationary pressures. While gas prices are expected to rise in April, Porter believes the current data might prompt the Bank of Canada to consider a rate cut in June.

The upcoming April inflation report and first-quarter GDP data will be crucial in shaping the Bank of Canada’s decision-making process, determining whether a rate cut in June remains a viable option.

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